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2020 July 7

Many medical experts are predicting a second wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic, which may arrive in the autumn as temperatures fall.

Although we do not want to try to predict the future, we examine a few possibilities and suggest some planning ideas.

Government Support resumes

Since the software and legislation is in place for both CJRS and SEISS, it would be relatively straightforward for the government to reactivate the schemes, perhaps with a smaller percentage of state support or in the case of CJRS, with an enhanced contribution from employers.

It may be argued that this would prove ruinously expensive for the country, but government borrowing can be scheduled over decades, as were war debts from WW1 and WW2. Of course, the government may raise National Insurance (NI) and tax rates to recoup some of this expenditure. There have even been rumours of a Net Wealth Tax being introduced.

The continuation of bank loans guaranteed by the government such as Business Bounce Back Loans and Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme could be another tool in the hands of the Treasury.


Government Support is not resumed

In this case there will be considerable issues for those businesses which are dependent on government support which may need to carefully consider their future.

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